Yemen’s New Frontline

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been making headlines in recent weeks with their rapid advance down Yemen’s western coast. They’ve seized key ports and islands that give them control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping route through which some 12% of world trade normally passes.

Mohamed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi official, has been making diplomatic overtures to the US, assuring Washington that they will not target American vessels in the Red Sea. However, he made one notable exception: Saudi Arabia. This is no surprise given the long-standing conflict between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition, which has been fighting on behalf of the internationally recognized government since 2015.

The Houthi advance has been swift and decisive, with the rebels now controlling key ports and islands that allow them to monitor shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. This strategic location gives them significant leverage over global trade. The Saudi-backed government forces have vowed to regroup, but for now, it seems the Houthis have the upper hand.

The question on everyone’s mind is what this means for the US. While Washington has shown no interest in getting involved militarily, there are rumors of indirect contacts between US officials and Houthi representatives through longtime mediator Oman. The fact that the US is reaching out to the Houthis suggests a recognition that the balance of power has shifted in Yemen.

A Decade of Blockade

The conflict in Yemen began 12 years ago when the Houthis swept into northern and central Yemen, seizing much of the country, including the capital Sanaa. The Saudi-led coalition entered the war on behalf of the internationally recognized government, leading to a decade-long blockade that has pushed the country to the brink of famine.

The Houthi advance is not just about territory; it’s also about ending the economic strangulation imposed by Saudi Arabia. Al-Bukhaiti has made it clear that they will continue to target Saudi-linked vessels and oil facilities until the blockade is lifted and they can negotiate a peaceful resolution.

The Price of Intervention

The US, which has been involved in the conflict under both the Biden and Trump administrations, seems hesitant to get drawn back in. This is likely due to recognition that intervening in Yemen’s civil war would require concessions to Iran, the only country with leverage over the Houthis. The collapse of negotiations between Washington and Tehran weeks ago suggests a tough road ahead for any diplomatic solution.

The Houthi advance has sparked fears of a wider conflict in the region. However, some analysts see it as an opportunity for the US to pivot away from Saudi Arabia and towards a more nuanced approach. This could be a chance for the Biden administration to reevaluate its relationship with Riyadh, one that has been criticized for perpetuating human rights abuses and fueling regional instability.

Watching the Red Sea

The Houthis’ declaration of a blockade on Saudi shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea is a stark reminder of their newfound power. While some have speculated about the impact on global trade, it’s worth noting that this chokepoint has been vulnerable to disruptions for years.

The question now is what happens next. Will the US continue to reach out to the Houthis, or will they stick with their Saudi allies? Will the Houthis use their newfound leverage to negotiate a better deal for Yemen, or will they continue to push for control of the entire country?

One thing is certain: the balance of power has shifted in Yemen. The Houthis are now the dominant force on the ground, and it’s time for the US and other global powers to take notice. The stakes are high, but one thing is clear: the next move will determine the course of the conflict and the future of Yemen itself.